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Mobile data traffic is set to grow 25-fold by 2012, stretching the mobile networks to their very limits.

Mobile industry analysts Informa claim that mobile broadband networks are already beginning to sag under the strain in major cities. "The networks in developed markets in the UK and the US are starting to saturate," Informa analyst Dimitris Mavrakis has announced. "We see a lot of bottlenecks in data-centric areas such as London and New York."

And Mavrakis predicts the situation will only get worse as demand for mobile data continues to increase, thanks to the increasing popularity of mobile-broadband dongles, 3G smartphones and social-networking services. "User traffic is growing exponentially," Mavrakis claims. "Surveys show that 40% of mobile broadband users are not happy [with their service] in the UK already."

Fellow experts agree that demand for data will keep on climbing skyward. "For sure, we'll see a continued surge in the number of people using data on mobile networks," said CCS Insight's Paolo Pescatore. "It's going to be an issue for some users - throughput rates are not meeting the marketed peak rates."

Longer term evolution?

Mavrakis says there are three ways the mobile networks can deal with the capacity issues:

1. Ignore the problem and provide a bad user experience.

2. Upgrade the equipment in their cell sites.

3. Install network optimisation products that make the most of the availbale bandwidth, an option he describes as a "short-term measure".

Mavrakis claims that Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology, which promises speeds of up to 150Mbits/sec, will ease the problem, but the networks are still a long way from a mass rollout. "We'll see initial deployments by the end of 2010," he predicts. "I don't expect it to be a force before 2011 or even 2012. Some big operators say they don't expect LTE until 2015."

CCS Insight's Pescatore shares his pessimism. "In Europe, the spectrum needs to be allocated and the infrastructure contracts need to be secured. It [LTE] is a few years away at least, on a mass scale."

However, both agree that mobile networks will likely migrate to a middle ground between today's HSPA technology and LTE. "I'm sure the operators will attempt to solve the bottlenecks," said Mavrakis. "There's a stepping stone from HSPA to LTE that involves MIMO [multiple input, multiple output] called HSPA+, and they can add it to their existing networks."